Can Product Managers use the Delphi Method ?

6 min readJun 27, 2024

The Delphi Method was developed in the 1950s by the RAND Corporation as a forecasting tool for the U.S. military during the Cold War. Named after the ancient Greek oracle at Delphi, this method was designed to systematically gather the opinions of experts through a series of questionnaires, with the aim of reaching the most reliable consensus. The key feature of the Delphi Method is its ability to allow experts to reconsider their opinions after viewing the responses of other panel members, thus refining their predictions or conclusions iteratively.

Understanding the Delphi Method

At its core, the Delphi Method is structured as a series of rounds, typically involving the following steps:

Problem Definition: Clearly define the problem that needs resolution or the forecast that needs to be made.
Expert Selection: Assemble a panel of experts. These individuals should have diverse knowledge relevant to the issue at hand.
First-Round Questionnaire: Experts respond to a series of open-ended questions, providing their insights and predictions anonymously.
Feedback and Second Round: Summarize the responses and provide this summary back to the panelists. They then re-evaluate their original responses considering the group’s feedback.
Subsequent Rounds: Repeat the process as necessary, refining questions and answers until a convergence of opinion is observed.
Final Assessment: Compile the collective input into actionable insights or decisions.

Implementing the Delphi Method: A Detailed Scenario for Product Managers

Imagine a scenario where a product manager at a software company is tasked with determining the strategic direction for a mobile app’s next major update. The company wishes to optimize user engagement and retention but faces multiple potential paths: introducing new features, enhancing current functionalities, or redefining the user interface. Here, the Delphi Method can serve as an invaluable tool for leveraging expert insights and guiding the decision-making process. Below, we detail each step of the implementation in this scenario.

Step 1: Problem Definition

The first step is for the product manager to define the specific question or set of questions that need resolution. In this scenario, the overarching question is: “What strategic updates should be prioritized to maximize user engagement and retention in the next version of our mobile app?”

Step 2: Expert Selection

The product manager must select a panel of experts who will provide diverse perspectives relevant to the question. This panel might include:

Internal Stakeholders: Developers, UI/UX designers, sales and marketing professionals.
External Stakeholders: Industry experts, behavioral scientists, and long-term users or customer representatives.

A balanced panel is crucial as it ensures comprehensive insights into both the technical feasibility of potential updates and their market desirability.

Step 3: First-Round Questionnaire

The manager creates an initial set of open-ended questions designed to gather a wide range of opinions and data from the experts. Questions could include:

“Which new features do you believe will most significantly enhance user engagement?”
“What improvements to existing features would you recommend to improve user satisfaction?”
“Are there any emerging trends in mobile apps that we should consider integrating?”

Experts are encouraged to provide detailed responses and are assured their input will remain anonymous to promote candidness.

Step 4: Analysis and Second Round

Once responses are collected, the product manager summarizes the information, maintaining the anonymity of the responses. This summary might highlight areas of agreement and, more importantly, areas of significant divergence in opinions.

The second round of questions is then formulated based on these insights. This might involve asking experts to re-evaluate their previous suggestions in light of the group feedback or to rank the feasibility and impact of different proposed features.

Step 5: Refinement

In subsequent rounds, the product manager refines the questions further to delve deeper into specific issues where consensus has not yet been reached. For example, if experts disagree on the potential of a new feature to increase engagement, additional information might be requested about similar features in other apps and their impact.

Step 6: Convergence

The iterative process continues until a consensus is reached or the range of opinions has significantly narrowed. This might take several rounds, depending on the complexity of the decisions and the diversity of the expert panel.

Step 7: Final Assessment

After achieving consensus, the product manager compiles the final set of feedback into a comprehensive report that outlines the recommended strategic updates for the mobile app. This report will include justifications based on expert feedback and an outline of expected impacts these updates might have on user engagement and retention.

Bottomline

Throughout this process, the product manager acts as a facilitator, guiding the discussion and keeping the panel focused on the key issues. The success of the Delphi Method in this scenario depends not only on the structured approach and the quality of the expert panel but also on the manager’s ability to synthesize complex information into actionable strategies.

Shortcomings of the Delphi Method

Despite its strengths, the Delphi Method has its limitations:

Time-Consuming: The iterative nature of the method can require a significant time commitment from participants.
Dependence on Expert Selection: The success of the Delphi process heavily relies on the choice of panel members. Poorly chosen experts can lead to less reliable results.
Risk of Consensus Bias: There is a potential for groupthink to develop over successive rounds as experts may move towards a consensus opinion that is not necessarily accurate.

Alternatives to the Delphi Method

When the Delphi Method is unsuitable, product managers might consider alternatives such as:

Brainstorming Sessions: More suitable for rapid idea generation when immediate consensus is not critical.
SWOT Analysis: Useful for evaluating strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats in decision-making scenarios.
Focus Groups: Can provide direct feedback from users or customers without the anonymity of the Delphi Method.

The Delphi Method, with its structured approach to achieving expert consensus, offers a unique and valuable tool for product managers facing complex decision-making challenges. By understanding and applying this method, product managers can significantly enhance their strategic decision-making capabilities, driving their products to new heights of success.

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